Business Intelligence for the Combat Sports Industry

April 20, 2026

Editor's Note

Sunday night in Winnipeg, and Gilbert Burns laid his gloves down in the center of the Canada Life Centre octagon and didn't pick them up again. Five losses in a row. Forty years old. A former title challenger who, not long ago, had Leon Edwards in serious trouble for five rounds and damn near won a UFC championship. That was the last image we got of "Durinho" as a professional fighter, and I'll be honest with you, it stings a little. The sport does not always give us the ending we deserve.

But while one era closed in Winnipeg, a dozen other story lines were cooking simultaneously. Dana White told reporters postgame that the Conor McGregor situation is finally "looking good." Khamzat Chimaev, three weeks out from his first UFC title defense, decided this was the right moment to announce a wrestling side deal. Tyson Fury's boxing comeback officially happened last weekend and it was, to put it diplomatically, functional. And the Le v. Zuffa antitrust settlement is actively putting money in fighters' pockets, with more than $237 million already disbursed, though a new and arguably more consequential case covering fighters from 2017 to present is still working its way through the courts.

There is a lot to get into this week. Some of it is big. Some of it is complicated. All of it matters if you want to understand where this industry is actually going. Let's get into it.

Main Story

There is something quietly extraordinary about the fact that Dana White said, at a post-fight press conference in Winnipeg on Saturday night, that the Conor McGregor situation is "looking good," and the entire MMA community collectively exhaled. Not because anyone believed it would definitely happen. But because it was the most optimistic thing White has said about McGregor in years, and at this point, we'll take it.

Let me give you the timeline, because context matters here. McGregor broke his leg at UFC 264 in July 2021. He has not fought since. The UFC 303 withdrawal in 2024, over what turned out to be a broken toe that never got rebooked, was the moment a lot of serious observers quietly moved McGregor into the "probably done" column. White himself, just last month, said negotiations were "not even close." A week before Winnipeg he called the situation "same old story."

Then Saturday night happened, and something shifted. "It's looking good," White told reporters after Malott knocked out Burns. "Believe me, you know once we get a deal done with him, we will announce it."

I'm told the holdup has been, as it has been for months, financial structure. McGregor made the overwhelming majority of his fight income from pay-per-view points, a system that no longer exists after the UFC signed its seven-year, $7.7 billion deal with Paramount/CBS. A new deal has to be built from scratch, and a fighter who once commanded a reported $50 million in PPV earnings from a single night is not exactly going to accept a flat appearance fee without serious negotiation. Sources with knowledge of the situation tell me both sides have been in active talks, and the tone has improved compared to earlier this year.

The timing creates its own pressure. Multiple sources have indicated that the UFC wants McGregor for UFC 329, which would be the International Fight Week card on July 11. That is less than three months away. Fight camp protocol, USADA clearance logistics, and the practical reality of announcing a fight of this magnitude means the window for getting this done cleanly is not infinite. You need weeks of promotion, not days. If White is saying "looking good" right now, that either means a deal is close or he is doing what he sometimes does, which is generating heat before spiking the football.

My honest read? Something has genuinely moved. Whether it crosses the finish line before IFW is a separate question. But after nearly five years of watching this situation stagnate, I am not ready to dismiss a positive Dana White quote from a post-fight press conference. He does not usually say things like that without some basis in reality. We watch.

Fight Card Previews

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, May 9, Prudential Center, Newark

Three weeks away, and this one is genuinely hard to read. Khamzat Chimaev, who dominated Dricus du Plessis for 25 minutes to claim the middleweight title, steps into his first championship defense against the same Sean Strickland who briefly held that belt before Chris Weidman, I mean Dricus, won it back. The two have real bad blood. Strickland "sent location" for a street fight recently, and Chimaev reportedly did not show. Which is actually a story on its own, and one I find telling about the mental gamesmanship happening around this fight.

Here's the thing, though: Strickland is genuinely dangerous for Chimaev in a way that gets undersold. He is relentless, his cardio is elite, and he does not get rattled. He also has the wrestling pedigree to avoid being immediately taken down and held. My pick is Chimaev by late stoppage, somewhere in rounds three or four, but I would not be shocked by a Strickland decision. This is a fight, not a coronation.

Separately, Carlos Ulberg, the brand new light heavyweight champion after beating Jiri Prochazka at UFC 327 in Miami two weeks ago, is staying at the UFC Performance Institute to rehab a knee injury sustained in the fight. No interim title talk yet, per the UFC's statement this weekend. Worth monitoring, because if Ulberg is out for any extended period, that division's picture gets complicated quickly.

UFC 329: International Fight Week, July 11 (Target)

No official card has been announced yet, but UFC International Fight Week on July 11 is shaping up to potentially include a McGregor return, a Benoit Saint Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett matchup that BSDhas been lobbying for publicly, and whatever the Ulberg situation looks like by then. IFW is always the UFC's signature showcase event of the year, and the expectation inside the company is that this one, with the full Paramount/CBS spotlight on it, needs to be exceptional. The pressure to deliver is real.

Business Intel

The Paramount/CBS deal for the UFC, worth a reported $7.7 billion over seven years, was supposed to be a rising tide that lifts all boats. The UFC traded its PPV model for guaranteed revenue, and the expectation from fighters and managers was that the increased income stability would translate into better base pay across the roster. So far, based on reporting and conversations with people inside camps, that has not uniformly materialized.

Multiple managers have confirmed to journalists, including my sources, that there is no set structure in place post-PPV transition. The UFC is operating case by case, meaning not every veteran received a bump, and not every champion who previously earned PPV points has been made whole. Some have. Some have not. This is creating real frustration, particularly among mid-tier veterans who expected the new deal to mean something tangible for their purses.

The UFC did roll out an updated bonus structure starting from UFC 324. The total bonus outlay is now $400,000 per event, up from $200,000, with Performance of the Night and Fight of the Night bonuses each paying $100,000. There is also a new $25,000 finishing bonus for fighters who earn a KO or submission but do not qualify for the primary bonuses. At UFC Winnipeg, Mike Malott pocketed $100,000 for ending Gilbert Burns' career with a vicious uppercut sequence, and Marcio Barbosa collected the same for a 70-second first-round KO in his promotional debut. The new bonus system, at minimum, is functioning as intended.

The broader structural question, what fighters outside the upper tier are actually earning per fight, remains unanswered and is likely to be a pressure point as the second-generation antitrust lawsuit, covering fighters from 2017 to present, continues moving through the courts.

Meanwhile, Zuffa Boxing, White's separate boxing venture under TKO's umbrella, continues operating under a five-year, $100 million per year deal with Paramount. The promotion has already signed IBF and Ring Magazine cruiserweight champion Jai Opetaia, and Callum Walsh is their marquee prospect. Whether Zuffa Boxing can eventually attract the marquee pay-per-view names it needs to justify its enormous deal remains the central business question hanging over the product.

Legal Docket

The Le v. Zuffa antitrust class action, the landmark case that took 11 years to resolve, is now in the distribution phase, and the numbers are striking. Berger Montague, the law firm representing the fighter class, confirmed this week that $237,386,515.53 has already been paid out to 984 claimants across 44 countries. That represents more than 90 percent of eligible fighters. The $375 million total settlement, approved in 2025 and covering UFC fighters who competed between 2010 and 2017, is the largest payout in combat sports antitrust history.

The delays for the remaining fighters are not arbitrary. According to Berger Montague, 10 claimants face delays due to "competing claims on distribution amounts," including disputes from spouses or taxing authorities and unclear rightful recipients in cases involving deceased fighters without wills. Separately, 17 fighters who reside in countries subject to OFAC sanctions cannot receive funds under current U.S. Treasury regulations. The firm says it is "working around the clock" to resolve the outstanding distributions.

Here is the bigger picture, though: Le v. Zuffa is the resolved case. The case that actually covers the current roster, the second-generation antitrust lawsuit spanning 2017 to present, is still active in federal court. That case, if it reaches settlement or judgment, would potentially dwarf the first in scope. It covers the years during which the UFC's revenues grew dramatically under Endeavor/TKO's ownership, and the compensation structure for mid-tier fighters changed very little despite that growth. The legal pressure around fighter pay has not gone away with the first settlement. It has simply shifted to a newer, potentially larger fight.

No major new filings from state athletic commissions this week. The Nevada Athletic Commission posted standard post-event documentation from recent events. Nothing of note from USADA or VADA on suspensions. Regulatory landscape is quiet for the moment, which is not always the case going into a big numbered event like UFC 328.

Fighter Watch

Mike Malott

Look, you cannot watch a fighter gut out wins the way Malott has over the last year and not notice. "Proper" Mike Malott is 7-1 in the UFC now, four straight wins, two of them by knockout, and the victory over Gilbert Burns on Saturday night was not a fluke upset. It was the natural conclusion of an arc that has been building since his debut. Burns, a decorated veteran and former title challenger, was never able to establish his game, and when Malott started unloading in the third round, those uppercuts had the look of someone who had done that exact combination ten thousand times in the gym. He pocketed his $100,000 bonus and will now enter the top 15 at welterweight. At 31, this is the beginning of something. Watch him closely.

Carlos Ulberg

The new light heavyweight champion of the world is currently sitting at the UFC Performance Institute in Las Vegas rehabbing a knee. The UFC has not invoked interim title talk yet, and that is the right call in the short term. But Ulberg's timeline matters enormously for the 205-pound division. Jiri Prochazka will want a rematch. Jamahal Hill is out there. Aleksandar Rakic has been waiting. The belt's holder being in a performance institute with a timeline attached is a division-wide issue, and I'm watching this situation closely over the next several weeks to see how long the UFC gives it before activating the interim machinery.

Tyson Fury

Fury returned to boxing April 11 on Netflix and beat Arslanbek Makhmudov by unanimous decision, 120-108 on two cards and 119-109 on the third. It was a workmanlike performance, not a statement, not a spectacle. Fury moved, controlled distance, and won clearly without ever really being threatened. He said afterward he wants Anthony Joshua next. For the business side of boxing, a Fury-Joshua 3 would be enormous, one of the biggest commercial events the sport could produce right now. How quickly that can get made, and whether a streaming platform or craditional broadcaster lands the rights, is the defining boxing business question of the next six months.

The Take

I want to talk about Khamzat Chimaev signing with Real American Freestyle, because I don't think this is just a quirky side-hustle story. I think it is a symptom of something larger.

Here is the situation: Chimaev is the UFC middleweight champion, three weeks from his first title defense, and he chose this specific moment to publicly sign with a competitive wrestling promotion. The RAF announcement happened at RAF 08 in Philadelphia on the same night as UFC Winnipeg. Chimaev was not there in person. The timing was, to put it gently, unusual.

My take is this: Chimaev signing with RAF tells you something about how top UFC fighters are increasingly thinking about their leverage and their brand outside the octagon. It is not just about wrestling. RAF is an emerging property with real MMA crossover appeal, and associating with it while you are the champion of the world is a smart brand play. It also tells you that the current post-Paramount, case-by-case fighter pay structure is not creating the loyalty and contentment that the UFC might hope a massive broadcast deal would generate. Champions are still looking for supplemental income and visibility outside the organization.

There is also the practical concern that MMA journalists have been raising quietly this week: Chimaev is three weeks out from fighting Sean Strickland for his first title defense, and he just signed with a competitive wrestling promotion. The injury risk in freestyle wrestling is real. The UFC had to have been informed of this, and it raises questions about what their athlete contracts actually prohibit in the current era. If "Borz" shows up to his fight against Strickland with a tweaked shoulder or a sprained knee from a wrestling appearance between now and May 9, there will be difficult conversations about how this was permitted.

Watch Chimaev vs. Strickland. But also watch what happens with Chimaev and RAF afterward. Because I suspect it's going to tell us something important about where the relationship between UFC fighters and their parent organization is actually heading in the Paramount era.

The Fight Docket is published weekly. Business intelligence for the combat sports industry. Share with someone who needs to understand what's actually happening in this sport.

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